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The Covenant Market Report

October 2026 · Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067 · prepared by AJ Powers, Broker/Owner, Irons & Estates

Updated November 1st, 2026

Print version (PDF)The Covenant homes for sale
The Covenant from the air
01
October 2026
$6.08m
Median sale
Q3 2026: $5.85m
12 months: $5.5m
$945
Price per sq ft
Q3 2026: $1,154
12 months: $1,185
88.7%
Of original ask
Q3 2026: 88.9%
12 months: 90.8%
68.5
Total days on market
Q3 2026: 44
12 months: 77
4
Closings
Q3 2026: 26
12 months: 83
The large figures cover October alone, however many homes sold. Beside each: July to September, and the twelve months to October 31st. A dash means nothing sold in October.
What it means
if you’re buying

This quarter is running a little slower than last year. The Covenant closed four homes in October, and with eight more in escrow it's on track for about 18 this quarter, against 31 in the same three months last year. There are 25 homes for sale right now, up from 24 at the start of October. At the pace homes have sold over the last year, that's about 3.6 months' worth.

The homes that sold in October took a median of 68.5 days from the first listing to the sale, relistings included. Every one of them sold below its first asking price, at a median of about 89% of it. Counting earlier listings, 19 of the 25 homes for sale have cut the price.

If you're buying, there isn't much to choose from right now, so it pays to have your criteria and financing settled before the right home comes up. Tell me what you're after and I'll show you what's selling in that range.

02
This quarter and
the seven before

The Card

This quarter
Q4 2026
4
Closed so far
$6.08m
Median so far
18
Forecast
8
In escrow now
31
Same quarter last year
Quarter by quarter
most recent first
QuarterSalesMedian sale$ / sq ftTotal daysOf original
Q4 2026 so far4$6.08m$94568.588.7%
Q3 202626$5.85m$1,1544488.9%
Q2 202617$7.3m$1,2512092.8%
Q1 202614$4.08m$1,20883.591.0%
Q4 202531$5.5m$1,08313287.0%
Q3 202524$5.08m$1,09810691.6%
Q2 202523$5.2m$1,0685491.8%
Q1 202516$6.46m$1,00210583.3%
Every quarter shows its medians, however many homes sold; a dash means nothing sold. Total days count every listing of the home.
Eight-quarter shape · Q1 ’25 to Q4 ’26 so far
Median sale
$6.46m$5.2m$5.08m$5.5m$4.08m$7.3m$5.85m$6.08mQ1 ’25Q2 ’25Q3 ’25Q4 ’25Q1 ’26Q2 ’26Q3 ’26Q4 ’26
$ per sq ft
$1,002$1,068$1,098$1,083$1,208$1,251$1,154$945Q1 ’25Q2 ’25Q3 ’25Q4 ’25Q1 ’26Q2 ’26Q3 ’26Q4 ’26
% of original
83.3%91.8%91.6%87.0%91.0%92.8%88.9%88.7%Q1 ’25Q2 ’25Q3 ’25Q4 ’25Q1 ’26Q2 ’26Q3 ’26Q4 ’26
Supply
3.6
months of supply, up from 3.3 on October 4th. 25 for sale and 8 pending on November 1st, 2026.
Closings by quarter
16Q1 ’2523Q2 ’2524Q3 ’2531Q4 ’2514Q1 ’2617Q2 ’2626Q3 ’264Q4 ’26
03
Eight quarters,
oldest to newest

The trend

Median sale price, quarter by quarter · Q4 ’26 so far in gold
$6.46mQ1 ’25$5.2mQ2 ’25$5.08mQ3 ’25$5.5mQ4 ’25$4.08mQ1 ’26$7.3mQ2 ’26$5.85mQ3 ’26$6.08mQ4 ’26so far
$5.5m
twelve-month median
The latest full quarter, July to September, closed at a median of $5.85m, down 20% from $7.3m in April to June. One quarter mostly reflects which homes happened to sell, so I'd weigh the last two together.
Price per sq ft
$1,002Q1 ’25$1,068Q2 ’25$1,098Q3 ’25$1,083Q4 ’25$1,208Q1 ’26$1,251Q2 ’26$1,154Q3 ’26$945Q4 ’26
$1,185
twelve months
Price per square foot was $1,154 in July to September against $1,251 the quarter before. Check the lot every time you compare two homes on price per foot.
Of original ask
83.3%Q1 ’2591.8%Q2 ’2591.6%Q3 ’2587.0%Q4 ’2591.0%Q1 ’2692.8%Q2 ’2688.9%Q3 ’2688.7%Q4 ’26
90.8%
twelve months
Homes sold at a median of 88.9% of their first asking price in July to September, against 92.8% in April to June. There is usually room between where a home starts and where it closes.
What the money
bought
HomesMedian priceMedian sq ftMedian lot$ / sq ft
Sold, Oct 20264$6.08m6,6882.71 ac$945
Sold, last 12 months83$5.5m4,9182.47 ac$1,185
For sale, November 1st, 2026 (asking)25$8.49m8,0923.42 ac$1,215
Asking prices are not sale prices, so read the last row on its own.
04
What each price range
buys, and how it’s moving

The Range Finder

Price range
Sold, 12 mo
Median sq ft
Median lot
$ / sq ft
Total days
For sale
Vs Oct 4th
Supply (mo)
Under $4m
21
2,965
1.82 ac
$1,187
78
3
200%
1.7
186%
$4–5m
8
3,110
2.51 ac
$1,367
36.5
4
20%
6.0
10%
$5–6m
17
4,594
2.43 ac
$1,161
95.5
2
—
1.4
18%
$6–7m
7
5,750
2.48 ac
$1,114
48
1
50%
1.7
36%
$7–8m
14
7,962
2.57 ac
$904
44
2
—
1.7
—
$8–10m
5
11,325
3.53 ac
$751
274
4
—
8.0
14-mo pace
$10m and up
11
8,538
2.70 ac
$1,672
81
9
12%
9.8
33%
Months of supply
by price range
Under $4m1.7$4–5m6.0$5–6m1.4$6–7m1.7$7–8m1.7$8–10m8.0$10m and up9.8
What it means
Under $4 million, there are two more homes for sale than on October 4th. Between $4 and $5 million, there is one fewer home for sale than on October 4th. Over $10 million there are 9.8 months of supply, so a buyer there has the most to choose from. Supply is tightest between $5 and $6 million, at 1.4 months.
Sold, size, lot, $/sq ft and total days: closings over the last twelve months, medians of however many sold. For sale: homes listed on November 1st, 2026, by asking price. Vs Oct 4th: the change in homes for sale since October 4th, up in green, down in red, a dash if the same. Supply: homes for sale divided by that range’s monthly pace of sales, with its change since October 4th beneath. Where a range had fewer than six sales in twelve months, its pace reaches back by whole months until six sales, never past two years, and the months used show beneath.
4505 La Noria, The Covenant
The ten highest sales · Sep–Oct 2026

The Leaderboard

$8,450,000
1 · 4505 La Noria · closed 10/26/26
9,246 sq ft · 4.01 ac · first asked $9,450,000 · 66 total days
15807 Puerta Del Sol, The Covenant
2 · closed 10/30/26
15807 Puerta Del Sol
$8,350,000
8,435 sq ft · 2.85 ac · first asked $8,450,000 · 5 total days
16147 Via De Santa Fe, The Covenant
3 · closed 9/30/26
16147 Via De Santa Fe
$7,750,000
3,400 sq ft · 3.89 ac · first asked $9,995,000 · 816 total days
5202 San Elijo Ave, The Covenant
4 · closed 9/24/26
5202 San Elijo Ave
$7,495,000
8,573 sq ft · 2.05 ac · first asked $7,995,000 · 37 total days
Address
Closed
Sq ft
Lot
First asked
Sold
Total days
5
6870 La Valle Plateada
9/14/26
8,207
2.57 ac
$8,450,000
$7,000,000
204
6
5528 La Crescenta
9/14/26
8,275
2.15 ac
$7,995,000
$7,000,000
44
7
16532 Los Morros
9/1/26
6,494
2.96 ac
$6,750,000
$6,000,000
32
8
5922 Via TreVille
9/8/26
4,487
0.57 ac
—
$5,460,000
—
9
18081 Avenida Alondra
9/16/26
5,745
4.27 ac
$5,900,000
$5,144,304
26
10
16610 Los Morros
9/17/26
4,221
2.34 ac
$4,995,000
$5,050,000
9
The window
The ten highest sales from September 1st, 2026 to October 31st, 2026. The window starts with October and reaches back by whole months only until there are ten sales to rank. Days are total days on market across every listing of the home. A dash in first asked and days: a sale entered in the MLS only to record it, never marketed.
06
15 sales
Sep–Oct 2026

Closed sales

15807 Puerta Del Sol, The Covenant
Closed 10/30/26
15807 Puerta Del Sol
8,435 sq ft · 5 bd · 2.85 ac · first asked $8,450,000 · 5 total days
$8,350,000
$990 / sq ft
98.8% of original
4505 La Noria, The Covenant
Closed 10/26/26
4505 La Noria
9,246 sq ft · 5 bd · 4.01 ac · first asked $9,450,000 · 66 total days
$8,450,000
$914 / sq ft
89.4% of original
16850 Los Morros, The Covenant
Closed 10/23/26
16850 Los Morros
3,585 sq ft · 5 bd · 2.08 ac · first asked $3,980,000 · 78 total days
$3,500,000
$976 / sq ft
87.9% of original
17517 El Vuelo, The Covenant
Closed 10/2/26
17517 El Vuelo
4,942 sq ft · 4 bd · 2.56 ac · first asked $4,495,000 · 71 total days
$3,800,000
$769 / sq ft
84.5% of original
16147 Via De Santa Fe, The Covenant
Closed 9/30/26
16147 Via De Santa Fe
3,400 sq ft · 1 bd · 3.89 ac · first asked $9,995,000 · 816 total days
$7,750,000
$2,279 / sq ft
77.5% of original
16531 Zumaque, The Covenant
Closed 9/30/26
16531 Zumaque
4,523 sq ft · 4 bd · 2.51 ac · first asked $5,350,000 · 267 total days
$4,250,000
$940 / sq ft
79.4% of original
06
15 sales
Sep–Oct 2026

Closed sales (continued)

5202 San Elijo Ave, The Covenant
Closed 9/24/26
5202 San Elijo Ave
8,573 sq ft · 5 bd · 2.05 ac · first asked $7,995,000 · 37 total days
$7,495,000
$874 / sq ft
93.7% of original
16610 Los Morros, The Covenant
Closed 9/17/26
16610 Los Morros
4,221 sq ft · 5 bd · 2.34 ac · first asked $4,995,000 · 9 total days
$5,050,000
$1,196 / sq ft
101.1% of original
18081 Avenida Alondra, The Covenant
Closed 9/16/26
18081 Avenida Alondra
5,745 sq ft · 5 bd · 4.27 ac · first asked $5,900,000 · 26 total days
$5,144,304
$895 / sq ft
87.2% of original
6870 La Valle Plateada, The Covenant
Closed 9/14/26
6870 La Valle Plateada
8,207 sq ft · 6 bd · 2.57 ac · first asked $8,450,000 · 204 total days
$7,000,000
$853 / sq ft
82.8% of original
5528 La Crescenta, The Covenant
Closed 9/14/26
5528 La Crescenta
8,275 sq ft · 6 bd · 2.15 ac · first asked $7,995,000 · 44 total days
$7,000,000
$846 / sq ft
87.6% of original
6375 La Valle Plateada, The Covenant
Closed 9/8/26
6375 La Valle Plateada
2,882 sq ft · 3 bd · 2.17 ac · entered only to record the sale, never marketed
$3,875,000
$1,345 / sq ft
— of original
06
15 sales
Sep–Oct 2026

Closed sales (continued)

5922 Via TreVille, The Covenant
Closed 9/8/26
5922 Via TreVille
4,487 sq ft · 3 bd · 0.57 ac · entered only to record the sale, never marketed
$5,460,000
$1,217 / sq ft
— of original
5383 El Secreto, The Covenant
Closed 9/7/26
5383 El Secreto
3,000 sq ft · 5 bd · 1.97 ac · first asked $2,850,000 · 4 total days
$3,000,000
$1,000 / sq ft
105.3% of original
16532 Los Morros, The Covenant
Closed 9/1/26
16532 Los Morros
6,494 sq ft · 7 bd · 2.96 ac · first asked $6,750,000 · 32 total days
$6,000,000
$924 / sq ft
88.9% of original
The window
Every closing from September 1st, 2026 to October 31st, 2026, most recent first. October alone had fewer than six, so this page reaches back by whole months until it shows six. It is the only page that does.
07
As of November 1st, 2026

For sale and pending

Months of supply
3.6
25 homes are for sale today, against 24 on October 4th. At the pace homes have sold over the last year, that's 3.6 months of supply, up from 3.3 four weeks ago. Another eight are in escrow.
The homes
Every home for sale here, with its price history, is on my live search for The Covenant, which updates as listings change.
Pending · 8
AddressLast askSq ftDays
6055 Lago Lindo$5,195,0003,07614
5927 Linea Del Cielo -Elm$4,250,0002,19759
17940 Avenida Alondra$6,595,0007,60064
7030 Caminito De Conejos$5,495,0004,82270
AddressLast askSq ftDays
6347 Las Colinas—4,19494
5929 Linea Del Cielo -Jacaranda$1,995,0001,051101
7090 Via Guadalupe$7,995,0009,717146
15808 Via Del Alba$4,995,0005,278189
Days are total days, every listing counted.
08
Came off without selling,
last 30 days

Off the market

Came off 10/15/26
6678 Las Colinas
$4,200,000
last ask
$4,200,000
first asked
64
total days · 3,416 sq ft · 3.63 ac
Came off 10/14/26
4905 El Arco Iris
$5,199,000
last ask
$5,395,000
first asked
146
total days · 4,300 sq ft · 2.02 ac
Came off 10/13/26
16337 Los Arboles
$19,950,000
last ask
$19,950,000
first asked
258
total days · 16,006 sq ft · 2.98 ac
If one was on your list
Three homes came off the market in the last 30 days without selling. If one of them was on your list, I can find out where it stands. Days are total days on market, counting every listing of the home in an unbroken run.
AJ Powers, Broker/Owner, Irons & Estates
A note from AJ

If I were buying in The Covenant right now

Supply here is thin right now, so I'd have my criteria settled before the right home comes up. The good ones don't wait for a second showing.

If your range is between $5 and $6 million, that's where supply is tightest, at 1.4 months. I'd move faster there than anywhere else in The Covenant.

Before you compare two homes on price per foot, compare the lots. A lot of the value here sits in the land, and price per foot hides it.

Some of the best opportunities I see are homes a buyer can make their own. My design and renovation background is how I help clients see what a home becomes and what the work is worth.

AJ PowersBroker/Owner, Irons & Estates

Every sale, last twelve months

ClosedAddressSoldContractSq ftLot$ / sq ftOf first askTotal days
10/30/2615807 Puerta Del Sol$8,350,00010/9/268,4352.85 acb$99098.8%5
10/26/264505 La Noria$8,450,0006/3/269,2464.01 ac$91489.4%66
10/23/2616850 Los Morros$3,500,0009/4/263,5852.08 ac$97687.9%78
10/2/2617517 El Vuelo$3,800,0009/8/264,9422.56 ac$76984.5%71
9/30/2616147 Via De Santa Fe$7,750,0009/12/263,4003.89 ac$2,27977.5%816
9/30/2616531 Zumaque$4,250,0009/1/264,5232.51 ac$94079.4%267
9/24/265202 San Elijo Ave$7,495,0009/2/268,5732.05 ac$87493.7%37
9/17/2616610 Los Morros$5,050,0008/27/264,2212.34 ac$1,196101.1%9
9/16/2618081 Avenida Alondra$5,144,3048/23/265,7454.27 ac$89587.2%26
9/14/266870 La Valle Plateada$7,000,0008/12/268,2072.57 ac$85382.8%204
9/14/265528 La Crescenta$7,000,0008/19/268,2752.15 ac$84687.6%44
9/8/266375 La Valle Plateada$3,875,000Recorded at salea2,8822.17 ac$1,345——
9/8/265922 Via TreVille$5,460,000Recorded at salea4,4870.57 ac$1,217——
9/7/265383 El Secreto$3,000,0007/31/263,0001.97 ac$1,000105.3%4
9/1/2616532 Los Morros$6,000,0007/24/266,4942.96 ac$92488.9%32
8/17/2616345-47 Los Arboles$15,000,0008/10/268,7352.03 ac$1,71763.2%253
8/17/2618044 Loma Alegre$5,000,0007/18/266,0303.03 ac$82984.0%101
8/17/266140 La Granada$3,634,5007/18/263,0620.28 ac$1,18791.0%5
8/6/2615739 El Camino Real$6,595,0007/29/265,7502.69 ac$1,147100.0%9
8/5/266871 Las Colinas$6,700,0007/24/265,3352.48 ac$1,25695.7%149
8/5/2616912 Reposa Alta$5,077,983Recorded at salea4,3752.09 ac$1,161——
7/31/2615550 El Camino Real$11,750,0006/29/267,5624.00 ac$1,55469.5%207
7/30/2616721 La Gracia$5,700,000Recorded at salea4,1661.40 ac$1,368——
7/28/265305 La Crescenta$7,999,0007/6/269,4257.13 ac$84966.7%694
7/27/266156 La Flecha$4,450,0007/13/263,3250.12 ac$1,33899.0%37
7/15/2616822 Zumaque St$5,035,0006/5/263,7572.43 ac$1,34093.3%90
7/15/2618244 Paseo Victoria$3,995,0005/31/264,1004.00 ac$97495.1%13
7/13/266404 Mimulus$11,250,0006/26/269,2782.92 ac$1,21383.4%81
7/3/265406 Calzada Del Bosque$6,000,0006/1/265,3862.47 ac$1,114100.1%10
7/1/2616109 Rambla De Las Flores$10,400,000Recorded at salea10,5412.70 ac$987——
6/29/2616409 Via de Santa Fe$8,095,0006/19/2612,0252.98 ac$67392.5%334
6/26/266336 El Sicomoro$6,875,0006/11/265,5400.98 ac$1,24194.8%48
6/24/265125 El Secreto$3,250,0004/16/261,8481.82 ac$1,75981.2%256
6/18/266685 & 6701 Lago Lindo$12,900,0006/15/264,2088.32 ac$3,06692.8%0
6/15/265516 LA CRESCENTA$14,500,000Recorded at salea8,6743.87 ac$1,672——
6/12/266154 Camino Selva$3,595,0005/5/262,484—$1,44794.7%4
6/9/265263 La Glorieta$4,995,000Recorded at salea3,9944.34 ac$1,251——
6/4/265770 El Montevideo$7,800,0005/1/261,9432.72 ac$4,014173.3%9
6/4/265770 El Montevideo + Via De Fortuna Lot$7,800,0005/1/261,9435.61 ac$4,01489.7%9
5/28/264943 El Arco Iris$11,000,0005/9/269,0962.55 ac$1,20995.7%11
5/12/2617507 Los Morros$5,000,0002/12/268,0002.70 ac$62571.5%140
5/11/265424 El Cielito$7,300,0004/2/265,1262.12 ac$1,42491.3%20
4/30/265616 La Sencilla$5,005,0004/6/264,3852.17 ac$1,141101.1%11
4/29/266152 Camino Selva$3,500,0003/26/263,076—$1,13887.8%150
4/24/2616636 El Zorro Vista$7,400,0004/16/269,9321.77 acb$74592.6%77
4/20/266150 La Fremontia$4,575,0003/6/262,7070.38 ac$1,690100.0%4
4/6/264724 El Aspecto$7,850,0002/16/269,2904.14 ac$84595.8%35
3/26/265618 Loma Verde Dr$3,950,0002/12/263,3341.03 ac$1,18590.8%147
3/23/266375 La Valle Plateada$3,550,000Recorded at salea2,8822.17 ac$1,232——
3/9/2616574 Zumaque$3,025,0001/19/262,9656.11 acb$1,02093.1%161
3/9/264631 La Orilla$7,250,0002/6/267,4004.68 ac$98094.8%11
3/9/266013 La Flecha$3,225,0002/11/262,1480.23 ac$1,501100.8%6
3/2/2616122 Via Del Alba$5,055,0001/28/266,5372.54 ac$77384.3%139
2/25/265306 Linea del Cielo$3,995,00012/30/252,5765.26 ac$1,55166.6%181
2/15/266236 Los Naranjos$5,500,000Not recordedd4,000—$1,375100.0%0
2/13/266323 Mimulus$10,000,0001/29/265,9560.96 ac$1,67987.0%87
2/13/265757 San Elijo$3,430,00012/27/253,1851.01 ac$1,07780.7%80
2/4/2617550 Via De Fortuna$7,500,000Recorded at salea9,1782.05 ac$817——
1/13/2617309 Via De Fortuna$7,200,00012/9/257,7172.00 ac$93391.2%63
1/5/266418 Paseo Delicias$3,846,10311/1/252,6250.98 ac$1,46569.9%154
1/2/265509 Linea Del Cielo$4,175,00012/9/252,6743.37 ac$1,56196.0%36
12/23/257057 Rancho Cielo$6,250,00012/8/258,8763.37 ac$70489.9%119
12/23/255228 Avenida Maravillas$5,500,00011/11/256,5282.50 ac$843100.0%4
12/19/255465 Avenida Maravillas$7,050,00012/16/256,1450.55 ac$1,14788.2%145
12/19/256147 Camino Selva$3,090,00011/23/252,3440.46 ac$1,318103.9%11
12/15/256141 Lago Lindo$4,000,000Recorded at salea2,6442.29 acb$1,513——
12/11/254540 Los Pinos$6,100,00011/24/257,5402.12 ac$80987.3%496
12/11/256230 La Fremontia$3,500,00011/12/252,150—$1,628100.1%31
12/11/2517716 Via De Fortuna$5,120,00011/4/255,8042.43 ac$88291.5%85
12/9/2517112 Via De La Valle$3,650,00011/12/254,1630.57 ac$87787.0%80
12/4/255499 Avenida Maravillas$5,500,00011/19/254,6000.69 acb$1,19680.9%160
12/4/255499 Avenida Maravillas$5,500,00010/22/254,5940.69 ac$1,19780.9%205
12/4/2516734 Via De Santa Fe$12,995,000Recorded at salea6,0002.07 ac$2,166——
12/3/255354 El Camino Del Norte$5,487,00011/11/256,2703.39 ac$87591.6%106
12/1/2517965 Via De Fortuna$12,250,00010/17/256,7572.54 ac$1,81386.0%53
11/26/255749 Loma Verde Dr$4,040,0008/27/252,8951.12 ac$1,39697.8%13
11/24/256372 Las Colinas$8,500,00011/19/2511,3255.99 ac$75177.3%274
11/24/2516434 La Via Feliz$4,550,00010/19/254,6442.73 ac$98078.4%346
11/21/255305 La Granada$3,475,0006/23/254,9182.90 ac$70779.1%249
11/14/2517461 Avenida De Acacias$8,000,00010/27/2512,0113.05 ac$66664.0%608
11/14/256473 Lago Lindo$10,500,000Recorded at salea8,5385.50 ac$1,230——
11/13/2516827 Via De La Valle$5,350,00011/2/253,7141.34 ac$1,44082.4%132
11/13/256015 La Flecha$3,150,00010/22/252,0730.11 ac$1,520100.0%2

Every closing from November 1st, 2025 to October 31st, 2026, most recent first. Contract is the date the home came off the MLS as sold, which is when it went under contract. First ask is where the home's current run of listings started, and total days count every listing in that run.

a Entered in the MLS only to record the sale, so there is no contract date, asking price comparison or days on market.

b Lot size from another listing of the same home.

d The MLS shows no contract date before the close.

Homes for sale and recent sales, live

My live search for The Covenant shows every home for sale and every recent sale, drawn to the community's boundary. It updates as listings change.

Homes for saleRecent salesAbout The Covenant

Past editions

Prepared by AJ Powers, Broker/Owner, Irons & Estates (DRE #01856860) · 858.914.0804

Source: CRMLS / SDMLS, data pulled November 1st, 2026. Information is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified, including square footage and lot size.